13.10 結語

過去一萬多年來，全球由冰河期進入間冰期，氣候逐漸趨暖，全球生物表現出棲地遷移、社群消長、物種絕滅等反應；未來一世紀，設若全球增溫2∼4℃，類似的變化必將發生，不同的是，這次氣候變遷的速率太快，目前生物居棲地的縮小及破碎分割，和生物族群規模的銳減，將造成生物移棲及適應的雙重困難，可能釀成地球歷史上最大規模絕滅事件。

目前生物絕滅主要發生在熱帶雨林，而未來氣候變遷最大衝擊區可能在溫帶與寒帶，因為該地的升溫現象將最為顯著，然而，全球雨量及風暴路徑的改變，可能對熱、溫、寒各帶的生物都造成影響。除溫度外，酸雨、紫外線、野火、蟲害、病變及生物競爭等因素也將改變，並衝擊生物社群。

生物多樣性的嚴重流失似乎己不可避免，對全球已瀕臨絕種的生物而言，未來的氣候變遷不啻雪上加霜、落井下石。而如何保育生物，遏阻絕滅，平心而論，我們並沒有太多的研究，足夠的行動。目前設立的生物保護區並未考慮到未來氣候變遷的問題，極可能在下世紀中期失去原來設定的功能。保護區的增設及多元化，加強南北縱深及海拔的跨度都是當務之急。保護區之間要有生物走廊保持連通，而非人類文明泛濫中的孤島而已。另方面對生物的基因、物種、生態系各階層多樣性的研究、保護及復育勢不容緩，因為亡羊補牢，為時雖晚，卻尚能存留幾許後望，增加一點生機！

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